I give you three commodities and one condition which will determine the direction of the US 2012 Presidential election.
I've written before about the price of gasoline. As a simple rule, if it costs you nearly $4 or more at the pump in November, Barack Obama will lose the presidency.
As a standalone condition, if Condoleeza Rice (former US Secretary of State) runs for VP under Mitt Romney, Romney is not guaranteed a "win." Should there be a Middle East confrontation between Israel and any other player: Iran, Syria, Egypt... Rice will be noted as an expert in foreign policy. High Gas Prices + War = Romney.
And if gas prices fall to $3.39 or less, in spite of War, Obama might elect to play his "I got Bin Laden" card. Low Gas Prices + War = Obama.
The only way Obama could lose in a low gas-war scenario, is if he fails to show courage and fortitude as leader of the nation.
But wait! There may be a "wild card" --- corn! Americans have oversaturated corn into every fiber of life, from the notorious "corn syrup" that finds its way into almost every food product imaginable, to raw material for ethanol, which is added to gasoline, as well as for consumption as a vergetable and (popcorn) snack. Corn is also exported to third world countries to help battle famine.
Faster than TV's talking heads could say "prices are going up" I noticed a can of store-brand corn had risen from 59 cents the other day (that was a price hike from 49 cents over the winter) to $1.15. Anytime something "bad" is perceived as coming, retailers hustle to hike prices.
Drought. Corn commodities market. Famine in the 3rd world. Add those up and factor them in. Will Obama be a Hoover or a Roosevelt? What do YOU think?